Looks like Hexion and Apollo are now going to try and complete the Huntsman (HUN) deal. At HUN’s current trading price, if the deal goes through at the original buyout price, the ROI is huge.

Target: Huntsman Corp. (HUN)

Buyer: Hexion and Apollo Management LP

Deal: $28 cash per share

Target share price: $12

Closes on: ??

Backstory:

Hexion/Apollo have wanted out of the deal, but recently a judge ordered them to complete it. Since then, Apollo has pledged $540M to Hexion to help get the deal done.

Conclusion:

With Apollo throwing more money at and the judge making them do it, I think the odds are this will get done. The big risk here is: WHEN. Also, I have not read the judge’s ruling, but I wonder if the original deal price of $28/sh might get negotiated down.

Since I am not overly concerned about the deal getting done soon, I will buy if the entry point is is HUN @ $12 or less.

Sources:

Key developments from Reuters

MercuryNews (article about judge requiring the deal to go through)

Forbes (article about latest cash infusion from Apollo)

TheDeal.com (article on Hexion’s ability to complete the deal and potential damages filed by HUN)