Well, the deal offer is still the same: 0.485 shares of Exelon stock for each share of NRG.

Note:

Exelon said the exchange offer will expire at 5 p.m. EST on Jan. 6, 2009.

So my, my number crunch (which I wrote about here) is still basically the same. However, the new risk for this deal is that, despite the Jan 6, 2009 exchange offer deadline, it might to take much longer to complete. A recent article in NYT’s DealBook talks about these issues.

I prefer friendly deals that have a firm deadline, not hostile (aka chaotic) deals, so this one will remain on WATCH status (however, the arb spread right now is a BUY for me in terms of ROI only; I have a position in NRG stock in my simulated portfolio).

Current numbers 11/13/2008:

EXC: $52.54

NRG: $22.00

After deal exchange rate, the value of NRG’s shares today is: (0.485 * $52.54) = $25.48. Or, approx 15% ROI if the deal happened today and I were in at $22/sh. Unfortunately for me, my entry point a few weeks back was $24.50, so my current ROI would only be: 4%.