Update (1)
Nice article on SeekingAlpha talks about how Agrium’s bid for CF affects CF’s bid for TRA (and vice versa):
Article points to the fact that the market is pricing a higher probablity of the Agrium-Cf deal getting done instead of the CF-TRA deal:
“In the interim, the market seems to be betting on an Agrium-CF combination,” [...]
Alcatel-Lucent stock is trading higher on loose speculation of a possible takeover by Huawei Technologies and ZTE (both Chinese firms).
The NY Times sums up pretty well why the idea of a buyout from a Chinese firm is unlikely:
“…A merger with a Chinese firm would be complicated, given that Alcatel-Lucent owns Bell Labs, a major military [...]
Virgin Mobile USA (VM) being bought by Sprint Nextel (S). It is a stock deal with restrictions. Based on the terms (see snippet at bottom of this post), here’s how it would work out:
First, if your shares cost you $5.50 in the first place, to at least break even, S’s 10-day avg closing price ending [...]
Not an arbitrage opp, but more like a long term roll of the dice… you get 7-year stock warrants on this one! Wait… what?
Frontier Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: FTBK) is to be acquired by Acquisition Holdings, Inc. (NYSE Amex: DSP) (”SPAH”). The deal is 0.053 shares of DSP stock (currently trading at $9.73 on July 31, [...]
I’ve updated some existing positions since I last added info to this blog, so here’s a recap:
JAVA:
Deal to be bought by Oracle instead of IBM. (Approved by shareholders on July 16, 2009). New offer price: $9.50/sh cash. Not sure on deal close date, so I will assume 12/31/2009. My entry was $8.20. I decide to [...]
Looks like my TAGS position is still on track to pay out. Mgmt scheduled a special meeting Aug 20, 2009 to vote on the previous merger agreement with a group of investers.
I should make 18% ROI if the deal closes.
Arbitrage opp. Proposed deal from AT&T (T) for Centennial Communications (CYCL) is $8.50/sh due to close by the end of 4Q 2009. There are some warning signs / risk, thus the gap.
More thoughts on this deal from DividendGrowthInvestor at Seeking Alpha.
Gap: ($8.50 - $7.46) / $7.46 = 13.9% ROI (33.4% annualized if it takes till [...]
IBM is in talks to buy Sun Microsystems (JAVA) “sources with knowledge of the matter said.”
“International Business Machines Corp is offering to pay at least $6.5 billion, or double Sun’s Tuesday closing price of $4.97, The Wall Street Journal reported online earlier…”
“Sources say talks could still fall apart, but a deal could go through as [...]
Ok, so I am buying a position in WYE for my simulated portfolio today. Entry price: $42.87.
Here’s the number crunch:
Deal terms: $33 cash plus 0.985 shares of PFE per share of WYE.
Entry price of WYE: $42.87
PFE today: $14.26
Deal says I get: 0.985 * $14.26 = $14.046 per sh of WYE plus another $33 per sh [...]
If I had followed my risky advice (here) on Dec 30, 2008, I would have made a killing on the ROH-DOW deal. Well, the deal has been agreed too and I never bought any stock. Here’s the sorry number crunch:
Deal per share: $78 cash
My entry price on Dec. 30, 2008 would have been: $56.76
Deal closes: [...]
